








asof: 2026-09-18
| Guidance / Forward Statement | Observed Performance / Evidence |
|---|---|
| FY27 sales volume target of 6.5–7 lakh tons | Q1 FY27 volume was 1,56,136 MT; management expects Q1 and Q2 to be similar, with H2 stronger. |
| FY28 sales volume target of 1 million tons | Not yet observable; FY29 volumes from the additional 1 million tons expected only in H2 FY29. |
| EBITDA per ton target of ₹4,000 | Q1 FY27 EBITDA per ton was ₹3,162 (up marginally from ₹3,148 in Q4 FY26). Management said discounts and gas prices are holding it back; expects to move into the ₹4,000 band once critical mass is reached. |
| VAP target of 45–50% in FY28 | VAP currently about 35%; DFT expected to be operational by end of Q3 FY27, with full benefit in FY28. |
| DFT facility operational by Q3 FY27 | Progressing as planned; not yet operational. |
| API facility readiness by Q4 FY27 | Progressing as planned; not yet ready. |
| Hindupur facility operational by Q4 FY27 | Construction progressing well; not yet operational. |
| 2 million tons capacity by FY29 | Management expressed high confidence; 0.5 million tons to start construction by end of FY27. |
| Exports at 10% of total sales volumes/revenue | Company entered international markets 1.5–2 years ago; repeat orders received; solar exports started this year. |
| Finance costs to normalize | Q1 finance cost around ₹15 crores, similar to Q4; management attributed this to working capital for three new plants and expects normalization as utilization improves. |
| Purchase of stock-in-trade to settle at ₹50–100 crores | Fell from ₹420 crores in Q4 to ₹280 crores in Q1; management expects further decline. |
| Blended realization to normalize to ~₹75,000 per ton | Q1 blended realization was ~₹90,500 per ton; management indicated it will come down. |
| Capex of ₹650 crores for 1 million tons; ₹200 crores in FY27 | Management clarified ₹300–350 crores remains for the next two financial years, with some already incurred in FY26. |
Overall: Q1 FY27 showed strong volume and revenue growth with stable profitability, but margin expansion lagged due to gas prices, freight costs, and dealer rebates tied to new plant ramp-up. Management’s guidance points to H2 FY27 as the period when volumes and margins should improve, with FY28 as the year for full VAP and DFT benefits, and FY29 for the 2 million ton capacity milestone.
1 broker calls · 2025-10-09 to 2025-10-09
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