Bayer Cropscience Limited

Annual Returns

Cumulative Returns and Drawdowns

Fundamentals

Ownership

Margined

Broker Narrative

The narrative opened with a Cautious stance driven by El Niño and deficient-monsoon risks to kharif output, rural cash flows, and volumes, while acknowledging possible rainfall revival and remunerative crop prices as mitigants. By the last report it had turned Buy, shifting focus to double-digit domestic volume growth, stable exports, normal-monsoon expectations, and global demand revival, with new headwinds being Chinese competition and LATAM distributor insolvencies. The monsoon-centric bearishness faded, replaced by a constructive demand story, but early weather-driven demand stress was mirrored in negative actual returns through 2024.

Fears that came true

The flagged El Niño / below-normal monsoon risk was followed by persistent negative actual returns (-3.8%, -3.2%, -15.9%, -34.4%) across the next year, including a -15.9% DISAPPOINTMENT on the October 2023 Buy call.
The warning that a weak monsoon would strain cash flows, mute volumes, and force price cuts was borne out by the stock’s continued underperformance after the June 2023 Cautious report.
The higher insecticide-grade channel inventory called out in the first report became an overhang, coinciding with negative returns and no sustained recovery into 2024.

Optimism that failed

The IMD’s hoped-for rainfall revival from late June 2023 and narrowing of the deficit did not prevent the stock from declining at every subsequent report through June 2024.
The optimism that remunerative domestic crop prices and government farm-income support would cushion demand did not translate into positive returns, as the stock fell -15.9% on the Buy call and -34.4% by the next report.
The expectation of stable domestic demand and global revival in the last Buy report did not prevent a -9.5% actual return.

Broker Timeline

6 broker calls · 2023-06-19 to 2025-04-09

BAYERCROP

Equity Metrics

October 23, 2026